August  30, 2011

Could You Have Bred This Horse?

QUALITY ROAD

Werk Nick Rating: C+              Kris S. Bloodstock Rating: 9.5

(Werk rating based on A-F scale)  (Kris  S. Rating based on 1 - 10 scale)

As a breeder, you spend a lot of time considering stud fee, market, and sire power while making a decision to breed a mare.  Within the last ten years, most breeders certainly have checked a number of "nick" ratings for mares before breeding them as well.  Normally the information breeders refer to in this process is thought to be reliable.  But, think about this: had you been breeder Edward P. Evans (Spring Hill Farm) breeding his mare KOBLA in 2005, a review of the Werk Nick Rating of the stallion ELUSIVE QUALITY to her would have shown a less than impressive grade of "C+" for this mating.  Being conditioned to believe that horses bred on the highest possible "nick rating grades" perform at the highest levels, 99% of breeders would probably have gone to another sire that yielded at least a grade somewhere in the "A" range for this mare.  Sadly, breeders are so conditioned to these computer generated grading systems, most would find it improbable if not impossible that a mating yielding a C+ would produce a winner, much less a multiple Grade 1 winner that could earn over $2,200,000 such as QUALITY ROAD.

However, had you been a breeder with a STRAWBERRY ROAD mare in 2009 versus 2005, the year Edward Evans bred Kobla, you probably would have had ELUSIVE QUALITY high on your list for the mare because out of the blue, the Werk Nick Rating of QUALITY ROAD (by Elusive Quality out of a Strawberry Road mare) magically became an "A".  The evidence is right before our eyes.  If you notice the mating grade of QUALITY ROAD shown above, as published in The Thoroughbred Daily News, the rating jumped from a "C+" on February 28th to an "A" in his next race on March the 28th.  That is a change of two full grades in thirty days demonstrating not only the fallacy of the grading system, but the fluidity of the information firmly relied upon by a large group of people.

Well, at least the eventual grade change was helpful to all the remaining owners of STRAWBERRY ROAD mares...or WAS it?  Breeders who owned a STRAWBERRY ROAD mare in 2005, that still owned her in 2009, saw the age of their mare, which was already likely middle aged due to the average age of the stallion's broodmare population, add five years.  When considering pure probability, these were likely five years of depreciation and failed produce, for in the five years it took for your STRAWBERRY ROAD mare to begin to look interesting to ELUSIVE QUALITY, the mare surely continued to have foals who, also according to probability, were not graded stake horses.  Thus after the five years of waiting for such an "'A' nick" to appear for its commercial value, for your STRAWBERRY ROAD mare probably didn't warrant the inflated stud fee for ELUSIVE QUALITY which rose in the light of horses like QUALITY ROAD and SMARTY JONES.  For most breeders, these circumstances likely no longer allowed them to take advantage of this new magic "'A' nick".   

This is one of many things that are wrong with analyzing pedigrees based solely upon programs that use purely historical data.  Horses, their ancestry, and conformation are unique to each individual horse.  Even full siblings have amazing differences between them.  Breeders using horses like FLATTER and CONGRATS can attest to the obvious differences these two stallions offer a mare.  It is because of this uniqueness and individuality of each horse, that historical pedigree patterns must be utilized taking into account the mare's conformation and the physical tendencies of her family.  This is not an insurmountable task.  Historically successful breeders have proven this to us.  The difficulty is, you need to do your homework to accomplish what other great breeders have in the past. There are no magic computer programs outside the magic of the human brain which are fully suited for the task. The reward for the work is significant.  One example is financial success.  In the example described, financial gain is found in being able to breed a young STRAWBERRY ROAD mare to a stallion like ELUSIVE QUALITY for $10,000 versus breeding an aged, well depreciated mare to him for $100,000 a number of years later. 

So what can be learned from this mating?  Why is it so good?  An inspection of the mating shows not only a pattern of duplicate ancestry similar to classic runners of the past, but there are intense clusters that are placed nearly perfectly with regard to generation and lineage.  This has earned the mating a rating of 9.5 out of 10 from this agency.  This is a grade given immediately when a sire is matched with the mare, and will not change.  The patterns are either present or they are not.  In the case of QUALITY ROAD, they are present, and in near perfect placement.  In the argument of using the standard computer nicking programs to match a STRAWBERRY ROAD mare with ELUSIVE QUALITY, it is very important to know that these programs simply rate the value of the sire on the broodmare sire.  In the case of QUALITY ROAD, the next five broodmares sires and how they align were critical to the quality of the mating of ELUSIVE QUALITY to KOBLA.  For anyone who tried to use the mating of ELUSIVE QUALITY with any other mare by STRAWBERRY ROAD, they would have utilized about half of the full value of the mating that Edward Evans had at his disposal in the mare KOBLA because of her own unique line up of her next four broodmare sires.  When you consider the probability of duplicating the genetic code is about 86 billion to one, all other breeders trying this "nick" just threw out about 43 billion opportunities to get their mating right. 

In light of these arguments, a breeder can conclude that proper recognition of pedigree patterns early in the mating process will not only identify high quality matings immediately, but proper analysis will also never disregard young sires with small crops or sires without runners, and will present greater opportunities for breeders to use young sires at lower stud fees.  The ability to plan matings using proven patterning will also allow a breeder to apply the patterns to other stallions or mares across different sire lines, opening the door to better options for conformational matches for their own unique mare.